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Friday, 04 December 09
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS PREDICTED TO DECLINE IN 2010


China's eye-catching coal import figure s are unlikely to extend into 2010 given the predicted narrow-down of the coal price spread between the home and overseas markets, said anal ysts.

In the almost-past 2009, coal imports have maintained feverish grow th in China ever since the beginning of the year, thanks to collapsing

global coal prices brought about by the economic crisis. Published st atistics show that the Australia BJ Steam spot price tumbled at one po int to US61.5 dollars per metric ton (tonne) on March 19 of this year from the US190.95 dollars/tonne in Q4 of 2008, when the financial tail spin started to dampen world energy demands.

Meanwhile, local prices fell slightly due to restricted supply brou ght on by the coal resources integration in Shanxi province, China's m ajor coal producer.

Based on attractive prices worldwide, some industry experts even es timate China's coal imports will hit 110-plus million tonnes, more tha n 1.7 times of the figure last year.

The following is a chart unveiling the resurgence of China coal imp orts during January to October of 2009:

While coal imports totaled just 18.9 million tonnes between January and October, annual net coal imports should reach 87 million tonnes, with the yearly export figure expected to stay around 23 million tonne s this year, according to sector analysts.

The sharp growth in China's coal imports is a complete reversal of the situation in 2008, which saw just 5.03 million tonnes of coal expo rts.

China's conversion into a net coal importer has marked a structural

change in its coal trading, and its explosive coal demand rise is lik ely to be sustained for some time, according to Greg Boyce, CEO of Pea body Energy, the largest coal producer in the world.

Huang Teng, a local senior coal trade expert, said the pick-up in C hina's 2009 coal imports was not an exception in view of its substanti ally larger-than-global-supply coal demands, adding that the predicted

100-plus million tonnes of imports this year would account for only 3

percent of China's 300 million tonnes of coal needs.

The following chart shows China's coal output since September 2008:

China was not expected to be a net coal importer because of its bou ntiful coal reserves, said industry watchers, noting that the imports hike is also price-driven.

But the mighty coal imports by China during 2009 were bound to lift

up international coal prices next year, which was sure to bring down the country's coal imports next year, said Huang.

Furthermore, the small growth in global coal supply next year will also add to external coal prices rises, as competition with coal impor ters such as India will intensify, driven by the subcontinent's econom ic recovery, said industry analysts.

So far, the rising price on the world coal market is seen by other coal importing countries, which make up one eighth of the world coal t rade as, the best mechanism to curb China's imports and secure their o wn coal imports, said Huang.

It is a fact that China's coal imports have stoked up the internati onal coal price in 2009. Statistics from GlobalCoal, a worldwide marke tplace facilitator for trading coal and coal-related services, show th at prices for steam coal at Australian's Newcastle port rallied to US8 1 dollars/tonne after falling below US60 dollar/tonne at one point thi s year.

Add in climbing international freight costs, and the price spread b etween global and local coal prices will be squeezed, making overseas coal lose its price advantage, say analysts.

The consensus in China's coal industry is that prices agreed in coa l supply contracts will rise, but the upward margin remains under deba te, disclosed insiders with China Coal Transportation and Distribution

Association.

A 5 to 10 percent rise in thermal coal contract price looks likely in 2010, according to most coal trader researchers with local securit y dealers.

More flexible online convergence of coal production, transportation , and demand will be launched domestically in 2010, which should make it easier for local users to acquire coal.
Source: I Stock Analyst



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