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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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