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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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