We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
|
|
|
Showing 16 to 20 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
