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Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, which is going through some interesting times right now. European coal demand has been in a slump ever since early 2009, where seaborne demand fell by 14 million tons from the first to the second quarter. Import volumes during the last three quarters of 2011 indicated that seaborne coal demand was recovering, but the development stalled somewhat in 2012. Looking on a country basis, the nation with the biggest decline was Italy, with annual seaborne imports being roughly 8 million tons lower today than before the financial crisis. France has also decreased its imports by around 4-5 million tons annually. The United Kingdom and Spain have weakened as well, but these countries seem to be on a rebound, with volumes being slightly below pre-financial crisis levels. The Netherlands and Germany have had relatively stable import numbers since 2005.
The bulk of seaborne coal going to Europe comes from North America, Colombia and Russia. The United States and Colombia have doubled their exports to Europe, while Russia has maintained its share of the European demand. Russian coal is shipped from both Russian and Latvian ports; Colombian coal is primarily shipped from the Caribbean, while US coal is primarily shipped from the Atlantic Coast and the Mexican Gulf. The drop in European seaborne demand for coal did not affect these countries, but rather South Africa. From being the single largest coal exporter to Europe with 52.0 million tons in 2005, the country has become a footnote, with 13.6 million tons in 2011. This represents bad business for the shipping industry, since the sailing distance from Richards Bay to Rotterdam is 98% longer than from Hampton Roads and 61% longer than from Puerto Bolivar.
Although European coal imports didn’t tell a particular positive story for shipping, US exports most certainly did. We expect to publish a story on this within the next couple of weeks.
On a more general note regarding the bulk market, China is expected to increase its imports of wheat, as sub-standard storage facilities have damaged a part of the huge Chinese stockpiles. Traders said that China is seeking to increase imports when global prices are in a slump. Current forward prices indicate that this may happen during the third quarter of 2013. According to Chinese customs statistics, the main exporters of wheat to China are Australia, Canada and United States, the latter two providing significant tonne miles.
Meanwhile, Argentina is exporting record high volumes of grains; CRSL reported that Argentina exported 4.86 million tons of grains in March – the highest number ever for a single month. This gave a spike in Panamax rates with the BPI staying just below the psychological barrier of USD 10,000 per day in March and April, but earnings are now slightly lower at around USD 7,000 per day. In our last report, we predicted that Panamax rates would stay in the USD 5,000-10,000 per day territory; going forward seasonal events like Argentinian exports are likely to provide for the upside ticks.
SUPPLY
New dry bulk deliveries walk the anticipated line and have now reached 29 million DWT. Meanwhile, 11 million DWT have been sold for recycling, which brings the year-to-date fleet growth up to 2.8%. The inflow is seen primarily in the Panamax segment, where 136 (in 2012: 162) new vessels are keeping Panamax fleet growth high. Simultaneously, the Capesize segment only saw 48 (in 2012: 115) new vessels coming on stream, eventually easing some of the pain from the current overcapacity.
Average age and size of the demolished tonnage is 28 years and 60,000 DWT. In line with the development seen in the last couple of years, the average age is still trending down – whereas the average size is essentially unchanged. BIMCO forecasts a slightly lower level of tonnage being demolished in 2013 as compared to last year; however, it is still going to be the second-largest year on record. The solid level of demolition prices will inspire owners to consider recycling, rather than trading their old tonnage in a very volatile market without certainty of sustainable freight rates and against more energy efficient tonnage.
As regards the orderbook, it’s also moving in the right direction in spite of the recent flurry of new orders for more fuel-efficient tonnage. During the past 10 weeks the number of newbuilding orders in the book has come down from 1,599 to 1,548. Finally, on the ordering side, strong interest in Capesizes remains evident, with 62 new orders in 2013. A total of 18 million DWT has been ordered in the year so far, with March and April seeing total new orders placed in excess of 4.5 million DWT each month.
OUTLOOK
The Summer lull is creeping up on dry bulk shipping demand following the successful South American grain season. Fortunately, solid demand is keeping spirits up in the dry bulk industry, while the severe extent of overcapacity is pushing the date for a full-blown recovery of earnings into a somewhat distant future. For now the market is getting more and more spot focused, as no owners want to commit tonnage for longer terms at offered levels. Don’t look at the paper market for any support, because you won’t find it. FFA indications (10/6) for Capesize tonnage go to the tune of USD per day: Q3-13, Q4-13, Cal 14 and Cal 15: 7,550, 12,000, 11,450 and 13,700 and for Supramax the indications go as follows in USD per day for the same dates: 7,900, 8,400, 8,600 and 8,900. USD per day in the spot market (10/6): Capesize for 5,571 and Supramax for 9,307.
Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market seems to be the message passed on in recent years – and today is no different, as Handysize tonnage is earning USD 10,900 per day on an Atlantic round voyage whereas Capesizes are struggling to get a 1 year T/C fixed at USD 10,500 per day if at all. With respect to freight rates for Panamax and Supramax tonnage, they have lost ground since the beginning of March.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 6 weeks: BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected to remain subdued around USD 4,500-7,500 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 4,500-8,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-10,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-8,500 per day.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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