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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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