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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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