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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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