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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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