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Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
 It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fail to learn from your mistakes. So much so in fact that, like a scientist studying the formation of the universe, it should become possible to predict the past too.
Shipping knows exactly how this feels, having ignored the simplest of supply/demand equations and instead put its faith in fanciful predictions that the world – and therefore business – had changed forever.
The trouble is that the more things change, the more they also stay the same. The belief that an industry could break completely free of the cycles which had marked its history for hundreds of years was in fact a departure from reality, the consequences of which we continue to live with.
At least we know now, in case we did not before, that the world will continue to be a difficult place in which to trade, and one need only attend one of the regular shipping industry trade shows to experience that feeling first hand.
Even in Asia, grounded more in trade and consumption rather than the optimism of capital markets, there is an expectation that the world which emerges from the industry’s longest downturn in a generation will be different to the one that went into it.
Classification Society Lloyd’s Register used the recent Singapore Maritime Week to launch its own piece of long range research, laying down competing scenarios of what the industry might have to be grappling with by 2030.
A thorough piece of work put together by LR, QinetiQ and Strathclyde University, it nonetheless can only really succeed in telling the reader what they might already suspect, particularly with regard to the economic/political backdrop.
It seems highly unlikely, for example, that the world will adopt anything but an aggressive posture to protection and preference, not simply for the length of the recession but subsequently, as the emerging nations that (again, we know) will come to dominate the industry flex their muscles.
The shipping industry gives thanks en masse for China’s rise but it must surely recognise that the trading partner with which it will have to deal is no US, no Europe, not even a Russia.
Shipping has traditionally enjoyed freedom of capital, movement of people, goods and services, all commodities it cannot be certain will be so readily available in future. The evidence of the tension emerging in Singapore last week over the need to balance immigration against the requirement to import skills to cement the city-state’s future growth is one clear example and far from being the only one.
Shipping also likes to be left alone and to do its own thing, rather in the same way as entrepreneurs enjoy conditions of privacy to found and grow businesses – unfettered by regulation and competitive constraints, served by relatively free-flowing debt financing.
Again, little to no hope there. Shipping’s dalliance with unreality has left it, if not high and dry, then in a new room with different lenders with very different ideas compared to its former ship finance partners.
Shipping is also highly regulated, but in some areas, less highly regulated than other comparable industries. The trouble is that the industry has done a bad job too often of arguing its case that the positives outweigh the negatives.
There are a number of reasons for that, not least that its main regulator has to juggle the demands of being a technical body on the one hand with being a political one on the other. The tidal wave of opprobrium heaped upon regulators during CMA was a little less obvious during Maritime Week but it is clear the costs of compliance, the need to demonstrate transparency and the requirement to operate under greater scrutiny will all be firm future requirements.
But can shipping change by enough to meet these needs? Of course it should – by practising restraint, by being more commercially adept, by making friends with regulators earlier in the rulemaking process, by recognising that market share without profit margin is a pointless metric and that it something looks too good to be true, it probably is.
To carve out a survival strategy that goes beyond merely putting off the inevitable for another seven years, shipping certainly has to get smarter, and not just in terms of the above commercial issues, however pressing they appear.
Shipping needs to cure itself of the affliction that it has suffered under for at least the last 20 years – you take care of providing sufficient growth, we’ll take care of the rest. The industry is being asked tough questions about its place in the world, just at the time when it has demonstrated the definition of commercial irresponsibility and lack of regulatory engagement. So, back to the future. There is a fine living to be made predicting even short term scenarios, but better cuttings and weblinks to be garnered by mopping up in the aftermath. Most of those doing the latter focus on how we failed to spot the emergence of various technologies and services in time to either make our fortunes or to adopt them to our competitive advantage, preferring to dismiss them as the short term fads driven by people who just want to sell us things before our current things have worn out.
But watch this space – there are two factors that will be decisive in marking out corporates for survival and perhaps the wider industry for adaptive evolution: attitudes to people and the use of technology. The entry into force of the MLC might not by itself guarantee better working conditions for all seafarers but it demonstrates a much clearer focus by regulators that owners will be unable to ignore and should turn to their advantage.
And as for technology? Well, without new approaches to designing, building and operating ships, incorporating not just some tried and trusted techniques but new – and as yet unproven – technologies, there is little hope of meeting future regulatory hurdles and energy efficiency requirements.
I said that predicting the past was possible and here is the history lesson. Owners will adapt and survive. Some will leave the stage and some big names disappear but long before 2030, we will see a new industry emerge. In fact this is not a prediction. It will have to happen.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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