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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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