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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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