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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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