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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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