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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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