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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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