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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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