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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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