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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 September 24
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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