The dry bulk market has continued its falling pattern this week, with every day proving to be painful for ship owners, especially those of the larger ship types. Yesterday, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,430 points, down by 2.19% on the day, with Capesizes leading the fall. The Capesize Index retreated by another 3.13 percent to just 1,674 points and as a result daily rates are again closely flirting with break-even levels. The Panamax segment also lost further ground ending the session down by 2.77% to 1,788 points, still well above the larger Capesize ships, in a market’s paradox that lately has proven to be the norm.

According to ICAP Shipping’s first quarter review of the dry bulk market, on the demand side most notable was the massive change in China’s imports of iron ore between January and February which collapsed from 68 Mt to 48 Mt and when this was combined with the 10 Mt fall in the country’s coal imports also in February the resulting 30 Mt drop exceeds anything that was seen even at the time of the freight market collapse in 2009. “Despite this string of exceptional events the freight market has responded calmly and efficiently and will no doubt continue to do so throughout the next three months” ICAP Shipping said.

Indeed, the BDI has lost over 10 percent from the start of the year, which could have been worse, given the circumstances, like the ever so increasing ship supply and the natural disasters in Australia and more recently in Japan. "At the moment the volumes out of Australia and Brazil are disappointing," said Georgi Slavov, head of dry research and structured products at ICAP Shipping, in a quote from Reuters. He went on to say that the volumes of exported (Australian) coal are still 30 to 40 percent below where they should be at this time of year. As a result, the coal price is obviously going up and therefore the Chinese are not buying -- it's a chain reaction that is hitting the market, Slavov mentioned. According to him, Japanese coal imports won’t pick up until May.

In a separate weekly report released from Fearnley’s, it said that in the Capesize market, it’s been a quiet start to the week with holidays in India and China, resulting in a wait and see attitude among owners and charters. West Australia/China rates were in the high 7s, presently usd 7.50 pmt. Of period fixtures in the east, a couple were done at usd 16k levels for 11-13 months, with profit sharing. The fronthaul activity remains inactive.

Regarding the Panamax segment, “activity remained slow in the Atlantic basin, rates still sliding downwards with limited new business and more open tonnage around. Limited trade for the Pacific, mostly due to Chinese holidays Monday and Tuesday. T/A rounds dropped to 14-14.5k this week. In the Pacific, very little reported, though some rounds done at around 14.5 level as well. Fronthaul still fairly healthy at 25k level. With grain season coming to an end, expectations for next month are rather weak. Although forward market flat to slowly down, perhaps more activity for iore export from India after release of export ban and from Brazil in 3Q will stabilize the market. Period market hardly viable this week; 2 years done at 15500 and short period even less” said the shipbroker.

As for the smaller ship types, it argued about slowly softening rates as more tonnage is accumulating in the Atlantic basin .”The trans-Atlantic round is around $15k pd with trips to the Far East at around $30k pd. USG/NCSA are active (mainly petcoke) whilst the Continent/E.Med/B.Sea lack volume and rates are under pressure. Outlook: softer. In the Pacific, quiet market due to holidays in China. For Indo-India, charterers holding on unless have spot cargo. Rates sliding now and Supras in North China are getting close to 14k for trips via Indonesia to India. Iron ore from India has been quiet on WCI but rates stable at USD 17k for trips from WCI to China and from ECI close to 16k. On Richards Bay rounds Supras now seeing around 15k basis WCI dely. Red Sea, ferts on Handymax/Supras are fixed at very mid-high 20´s pmt on voyage bss to WC India. Not too much activity on short period as market bit volatile but hear some index type vessels fixed at mid-teens” concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping